Trends and projections of the labor force in the Metropolitan Area of the Aburrá Valley, 2010-2030

Abstract

Developing demographic projections of the labor force is one of the most captivating and complex tasks in contemporary urban study, due to the demographic phenomena interwoven in such a process. Paramount among such phenomena are those aspects related to generational changes, as people grow up from constituting an infant population, to reaching working age and, later, to be economically active. In making such projections for the Aburrá Valley (the main me-tropolitan area of Colombia), strong economic dynamics can be identified that are interwoven with other phenomena, such as violence, and youth that neither study nor work (known as Í€œneetÍ€: Not in Employment, Education or Training), and different trends of territorial changes both in urban and rural areas of Medellín and the surrounding municipalities. Specifically, this article presents population and workforce projections in the framework of the BIO-2030 Master Plan project.